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Wireless Infrastructure Technology & Markets:

The Challange of 3G


Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary
1.1 Overview
1.2 Market Trends
1.3 Study Methodology & Scope

2. Introduction & Background

2.1 The Cellular Concept
2.2 Cellular and PCS Network Architectures and Elements
2.3 Cellular Capacity
2.4 Cellular Channels and Multiple Access
2.5 RF Propagation
3. Wireless Driving Forces, Trends, and Issues
3.1 Trends and Issues
3.1.1 Asia becomes leading Wireless Market in 2002 and is a 3G leader
3.1.2 Western Europe’s wireless saturation and emerging 3G services
3.1.3 United States’ emerging 3G data services
3.1.4 Emerging replacement market and net adds opportunities
3.1.5 Difficult Economic Environment: high debt in Telecom
3.1.6 Service Plans; Prepaid, Contract, Roaming
3.1.7 Data Services’ revenue percentage
3.1.8 Intellectual Property (IP) moving down food chain
3.1.9 Network Equipment Vendors provide services
3.2 Driving Forces Discussions
3.2.1 International Competition
3.2.2 Competition in US
3.2.3 2G Migrations (1G to 2G): Essentially Complete
3.2.4 International Telecommunication Union (ITU) Global 3G Activities
3.2.5 Internet Data Revolution
3.2.6 DSP and configurable Technologies
3.2.7 Software Defined Radio (SDR) Technology
3.2.8 CMOS Semiconductor Technology
3.2.9 Multiuser Detection (MUD), Smart Antenna, and Error Coding DSP Algorithms
3.2.10 World Radio Conference (WRC)
3.2.11 World Trade Organization (WTO) Telecommunication Trade Agreement
3.2.12 Open Standards
3.2.12.1 Third-Generation Partnership Projects (3GPP and 3GPP2)
3.2.12.2 Open Mobile Alliance (OMA)
3.2.12.3 Open Base Station Architecture Initiative (OBSAI)
3.2.12.4 Brew
3.3 Wireless Infrastructure Capacity Estimates
3.3.1 Voice Capacity: Erlang Capacity
3.3.2 Data Capacity: Always-on Composite Bit rate
3.3.3 Telenor Mobile GSM Capacity Experiences Interview
3.3.4 Capacity Estimates by Technology
3.3.4.1 Voice Capacity
3.3.4.2 Data Capacity
3.3.4.3 Capacity Summary
3.4 Emerging 3G Services
3.4.1 Messaging Services
3.4.2 Location Services
3.4.3 Infotainment Services
3.4.4 M-Commerce
3.4.5 Mobile Internet Services
3.4.6 Enterprise Services
3.5 Wireless LANS (WLANs): 3G friend or foe?
3.6 Wireless IP (Internet Protocol) Networks
3.6.1 Circuit Switched (CS) Network
3.6.2 Packet-Switched (PS) Networks
3.6.3 Wireless IP
3.7 Profile: US West’s Open Network Wireless Technology

4. Market Forecasts
4.1 Wireless Subscriber Forecasts
4.1.1 World Subscriber History and Forecasts
4.1.2 Drivers and Assumptions
4.1.3 Western Europe Trends and Subscriber Forecasts
4.1.4 China Trends and Subscriber Forecasts
4.1.5 United States (US) Trends and Subscriber Forecasts
4.1.6 Japan Trends and Subscriber Forecasts
4.1.7 Korea Trends and Subscriber Forecasts
4.2 Mobile Terminal & Handset Market Forecasts
4.2.1 Market Forecasts
4.2.2 Market Discussions
4.3 Wireless Infrastructure Market Forecasts
4.3.1 Deployed Infrastructure Examples
4.3.2 Infrastructure Forecasts
4.3.3 Capacity Forecasts
4.3.4 Infrastructure Electronic Equipment Forecasts
4.3.5 Wireless Semiconductor Forecasts
4.3.6 Global 3rd Generation (3G) Infrastructure Opportunities
4.3.7 Wireless Multimedia Opportunities & Forecasts

5. 3G Wireless Technology Evolution & Standards
5.1 ITU IMT-2000 Requirements and Goals
5.2 Summary of 1G and 2G Wireless Standards
5.3 Global 3rd Generation (3G) Technologies & Standards
5.3.1 3rd Generation Project Partnership (3GPP) Standards
5.3.1.1 GERAN (GSM/EDGE Radio Access Network) / EGPRS (IMT-SC)
5.3.1.2 GPRS/EGPRS
5.3.1.3 UTRA/Wideband CDMA (WCDMA) (FDD) (ITU IMT-DS)
5.3.1.4 UTRA TDD and TD-SCDMA (IMT-TC)
5.3.2 3rd Generation Project Partnership 2 (3GPP2) Standards
5.3.2.1 CDMA2000 1x, 1x-EV-DO & 1xEV-DV (ITU IMT-MC)
5.3.2.2 CDMA IS-95B
5.3.2.3 CDMA2000 1x
5.3.2.4 CDMA2000 1x-EV-DO
5.3.2.5 CDMA2000 1xEV-DV
5.3.3 Digital Enhanced Cordless Telecommunication (DECT)(ITU IMT-FT)
5.3.4 Harmonized IP Multimedia Subsystem (IMS) Core Network (“All IP”)
5.4 2nd Generation (2G) Cellular/PCS Standards
5.4.1 Global System for Mobile Communication (GSM)
5.4.2 TDMA or Digital AMPS (DAMPS)
5.4.3 Pacific Digital System (PDC)
5.4.4 cdmaOne/IS-95

6. Technologies for 3G
6.1 Modulation and Coding Technology Evolution for 3G
6.1.1 Historical Summary of Communication Algorithms
6.1.2 Coding: Convolutional, Trellis, TCM, & Concatenated Coders
6.1.3 Viterbi Algorithm: Efficient Maximum Likelihood Decoding
6.1.4 Turbo Coding
6.1.5 Multiple-Access Interference (MAI) Mitigation/Multiuser Detection (MUD)
6.2 Smart Antennas
6.3 Software Defined Radios (SDR) for 3G
6.3.1 Wireless Transceiver Architectures
6.3.2 RF and Data Acquisition
6.3.3 IF and Baseband DSP Architectures
6.3.4 Vision of SDR Evolution
6.3.5 SDR Standards
6.4 DSP Semiconductor Technologies for 3G
6.5 Bluetooth - Short-range wireless technology
6.6 WAP - Wireless Application Protocol (WAP)

7. Company Profiles
7.1 Wireless Carriers/Operators
7.1.1 Americas
7.1.1.1 Verizon Wireless (NYSE: VZ)
7.1.1.2 Cingular Wireless
7.1.1.3 AT&T Wireless (NYSE: AWE)
7.1.1.4 Sprint PCS (NYSE: PCS and parent NYSE: FON)
7.1.1.5 VoiceStream / DT-T-Mobile (NYSE: DT ADR)
7.1.1.6 Nextel Communication, INC (NASDAQ: NXTL)
7.1.1.7 Alltel Corporation (NYSE: AT)
7.1.1.8 Leap Wireless International, Inc. (Nasdaq: LWIN)
7.1.1.9 US West/Qwest (NASDAQ: Q)
7.1.1.10 CALA (Caribbean and Latin America)
7.1.1.11 American Moviles (NASDAQ: MDX)
7.1.1.12 Canada
7.1.2 Europe
7.1.2.1 Vodafone Group (NYSE ADR: VODA); UK
7.1.2.2 Deutsche Telekom (NYSE ADR: DT), Germany
7.1.2.3 France Telecom (NYSE ADR: FTE); Orange, UK
7.1.2.4 Telecom Italia Mobile (TIM)/Telecom Italia(NYSE ADR: TI); Italy
7.1.2.5 Telefonica (NYSE: TEF), Telefonica Moviles (NYSE: TEM); Spain
7.1.2.6 MMO2
7.1.3 Asia
7.1.3.1 China Mobile and China Unicom
7.1.3.2 China Mobile (NYSE: CML)
7.1.3.3 China Unicom (NYSE: CMU)
7.1.3.4 NTT DoCoMo (NYSE ADR: DCM and NTT)
7.1.3.5 SK Telecom (NYSE: SKM), Korea
7.1.3.6 Hutchison Whampoa Limited; Hutchison Telecommunications(Hong Kong)
7.2 Network Infrastructure System/Equipment Providers
7.2.1 Alcatel (NYSE ADR: ALA)
7.2.2 Ericsson (ADR NYSE: ERICY)
7.2.3 Fujitsu Limited (OTC: FJTSF)
7.2.4 Huawei Technologies (China)
7.2.5 Lucent Technologies (NYSE: LU)
7.2.6 Motorola (NYSE: MOT)
7.2.7 NEC (NASDAQ: NIPNY) (FTSE: 6701q.l) (TYSE: 6701)
7.2.8 Nokia (ADR NYSE: NOKA)
7.2.9 Nortel Networks (NYSE: NT)
7.2.10 Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. (OTC: SSNNF)
7.2.11 Siemens AG (NYSE: SI)
7.3 Semiconductor Suppliers
7.3.1 Agere (NYSE: AGR’A)
7.3.2 Altera Corporation (NASNAQ: ALTR)
7.3.3 Analog Devices (NYSE: ADI)
7.3.4 Intel (NYSE: INTEL)
7.3.5 Motorola Microelectronics (NYSE: MOT)
7.3.6 Philips (NYSE: PHG)
7.3.7 Qualcomm, Inc. (NYSE: QCOM)
7.3.8 Silicon Laboratories Inc (NASDAQ: SLAB)
7.3.9 STMicroelectronics (NYSE: STM)
7.3.10 Texas Instruments (NYSE: TXN)
7.3.11 Xilinx, Inc (NASDAQ: XLNX)
7.4 Wireless Intellectual Property (IP) Suppliers
7.4.1 Power Amplifier Suppliers
7.4.1.1 Andrew / Celiant (NASDAQ: ANDW)
7.4.1.2 Powerwave Technologies, Inc (NASDAQ: PWAV)
7.4.1.3 Spectrian Corporation (NASDAQ: SPCT), REMEC (NASDAQ: REMC)
7.4.2 Superconductor Technology Suppliers
7.4.2.1 Conductus, Inc (NASDAQ: CDTS)
7.4.2.2 ISCO International, Inc (AMEX: ISO)
7.4.2.3 Hypres, Inc
7.4.2.4 Superconductor Technologies, Inc (NASDAQ: SCON)
7.4.3 Smart Antennas
7.4.3.1 ArrayComm, Inc
7.4.3.2 Metawave, Inc (NASDAQ: MTWV)
7.4.4 Other Intellectual Property Suppliers
7.4.4.1 InterDigital Communications Corporation (NASDAQ: IDCC)
7.4.4.2 Intrinsity, Inc
7.4.4.3 Mercury Computer Systems (NASDAQ: MRCY)
7.4.4.4 Morpho Technologies
7.4.4.5 Morphics Technology, Inc.
7.4.4.6 QuickSilver Technology, Inc.
7.4.4.7 RadioScape Ltd.
7.4.4.8 Repeater Technologies, Inc. (Nasdaq:RPTR)
7.4.4.9 Thin Multimedia

Figures
Figure 1-1 Wireless Evolution 1G to 2G to 2.5 G to 3G
Figure 1-2 Generic Network Architecture
Figure 1-3 Wireline, Wireless, and Internet Subscriber Trends and Forecasts
Figure 1-4 2001 Wireless Infrastructure DSP Market & Vendor Market Share
Figure 1-5 The Wireless Food Chain

Figure 2-1 The Cellular Concept
Figure 2-2 Generic Base Station Architecture
Figure 2-3 Typical Base Transceiver Station (BTS) Physical Architecture
Figure 2-4 The Erlang Formula & Concept
Figure 2-5 Multiple Access Methods
Figure 2-6 RF Propagation Considerations
Figure 2-7 RF Propagation Path Loss models

Figure 3-1 WRC-2000 3G Frequency Allocation & Historical Frequency Allocations
Figure 3-2 Multimedia Voice – Data Capacity Example
Figure 3-3 Cellular Hexagonal with area formula and cell-to-cell center distance formula
Figure 3-4 The Basic Erlang Concept
Figure 3-5 Packet Data Concept and Capacity Formulas
Figure 3-6 Packet Data Network Capacity Model and Percent Utilization
Figure 3-7 Sector Voice Capacity Estimates by Technology; 10 MHz
Figure 3-8 CDMA2000 Capacity per Sector versus Voice Channels per Carrier
Figure 3-9 WCDMA Capacity per Sector versus Voice Channels per Carrier
Figure 3-10 GSM/EDGE Capacity per Sector versus Voice Channels per Carrier
Figure 3-11 AMR and SMV Vocoder Principles
Figure 3-12 Voice and Data Loading by Time of Day
Figure 3-13 Wireless Internet Protocol (IP) Networks

Figure 4-1 Top 10 International Cellular Markets; 1) China 2) United States, 3) Japan,
Figure 4-2 World Wireless Subscribers by Technology
Figure 4-3 World Wireless Subscribers by Region
Figure 4-4 International Wireless Subscriber Forecast
Figure 4-5 Forecast Japan Wireless Subscriber and Indicators
Figure 4-6 Wireless Handset Sales and Unit Market Share by Technology: 2002 and 2006
Figure 4-7 Wireless Handset Unit Sales and Unit Market Share by Region: 2002 and 2006
Figure 4-8 2G, 2.5G, 3G, GSM & CDMA Handset Percentage Unit Sales, 2000-2006
Figure 4-9 2G, 2.5G, 3G Handset Percentage Unit Sales by Technology, 2002–2006
Figure 4-10 Wireless handset DSP Sales and DSP vendor market Share; 2001 and 2002 -
Figure 4-11 US Cellular, PCS, and ESMR Subscribers and Cell Sites
Figure 4-12 Worldwide Peak Hour Subscriber Channel Forecast
Figure 4-13 EU Average Peak Hour Subscriber Channel Forecast
Figure 4-14 US Average Peak Hour Subscriber Channel Forecast
Figure 4-15 Estimated 2001 Wireless Infrastructure Vendor Market Share
Figure 4-16 Generic Wireless Infrastructure Architecture & Major Semiconductor Apps.
Figure 4-17 2001 Wireless Infrastructure DSP Market Share by vendor
Figure 4-18 Wireless Evolution: 1G to 2G to 2.5G to 3G
Figure 4-19 3G Network Concepts
Figure 4-20 Global 3rd Generation (3G) Modular IMT-2000 Terrestrial Components.
Figure 4-21 Wireless Internet Subscriber Forecasts and Comparisons
Figure 4-22 Forecast International Average Wireless ARPU – Voice and Data
Figure 4-23 Forecast Wireless Industry Voice and Data Service Revenues
Figure 4-24 International 2001/2002 ARPU Comparisons
Figure 4-25 ARPU: % Non-Voice 2001, 2002
Figure 4-26 Percentage Mobile Service Revenues by Application: 2001 and 2006

Figure 5-1 Wireless Evolution: 1G to 2G to 2.5G to 3G
Figure 5-2 IMT-2000 Vision and Goals
Figure 5-3 3rd Generation (3G) Modular IMT-2000 Terrestrial Components
Figure 5-4 ITU IMT-2000 Standards and Organizations
Figure 5-5 3G GSM / GPRS / EDGE / TDMA-136 Evolution
Figure 5-6 GSM Air Interface Bit Rate and Capacity Enhancements for Data and Voice
Figure 5-7 GSM/GPRS Network Architecture
Figure 5-8 UTRAN Common Core Network Concept
Figure 5-9 WCDMA Spreading and Modulation for the Downlink
Figure 5-10 WCDMA Spreading and Modulation for the Uplink
Figure 5-11 WCDMA Pilot and Synchronization Channels
Figure 5-12 CDMA2000 evolution path to 3G
Figure 5-13 CDMA2000 Forward Link QPSK modulation Format
Figure 5-14 CDMA2000 Example Reverse Link BPSK channels on QPSK modulation
Figure 5-15 CDMA2000 3x Forward and Reverse Link Spreading
Figure 5-16 DECT General Access Technology (GAT) and Common Interface (CI)
Figure 5-17 An IMS Common Core Concept
Figure 5-18 Common 3GPP/3GPP2 Harmonization Reference Model
Figure 5-19 GSM Reference Model
Figure 5-20 World GSM Band Plans
Figure 5-21 GSM TDMA Frame, Multiframe, and Time Slot Structures
Figure 5-22 GSM Speech Compression / Encoding and Channel Encoding
Figure 5-23 TR-46 Reference Model: major functional elements and interfaces.
Figure 5-24 US Cellular and PCS Frequency Band Plans
Figure 5-25 DAMPS TDMA Frame and Time Slot Structures.
Figure 5-26 DAMPS/TDMA speech compression, digital and channel encoding
Figure 5-27 Pacific Digital Cellular (PDC) Band Plans
Figure 5-28 The CDMA/DSSS Concept
Figure 5-29 IS- 95 Forward (Base to Mobile) Pilot and synchronization channels
Figure 5-30 IS- 95 Forward or downlink (Base to Mobile) Channels
Figure 5-31 IS- 95 Reverse or Uplink (Base to Mobile) Transmit Channels
Figure 5-32 Types of DSSS/CDMA codes: Walsh/Haddamard & PN codes

Figure 6-1 Classical detection theory binary communication concept & BER calculation
Figure 6-2 BER versus SNR Example
Figure 6-3 Generic Transmitter, Communication, and Receiver Model
Figure 6-4 Coding Gain Example
Figure 6-5 Rate 1 / 2 Convolutional Coders; a) Encoder and b) Trellis Coder
Figure 6-6 Trellis Coded Modulation (TCM) a) uncoded n-QAM b) n+1-TCM
Figure 6-7 Concatenated Coding
Figure 6-8 Example simple Trellis Diagram
Figure 6-9 Turbo Coding; a) Turbo encoder, b) Turbo Decoder
Figure 6-10 CDMA Multiuser Detection (MUD)
Figure 6-11 Smart Antennas with antenna arrays and array processing
Figure 6-12 Generic Wireless Single Channel Transceiver Architecture
Figure 6-13 Typical Wireless RF and ADC Receiver Configurations
Figure 6-14 Typical FSK/MSK, n-QAM, n-PSK baseband processing
Figure 6-15 Typical CDMA/DSSS baseband processing
Figure 6-16 Multicarrier (MC) Power Amplifier and Digital Channelizers
Figure 6-17 SDR Reference Model
Figure 6-18 Semiconductor Trends for ASICs
Figure 6-19 Alternative Technology Partitioning for Wireless Products
Figure 6-20 Virtual Socket Interface Alliance’s Virtual Component Design Methodology.
Figure 6-21 Generic SOC design flow for SDRs

Tables

Table 1-1 Wireless Infrastructure Investment Forecast

Table 2-1 Comparison of Channels per 5 MHz of allocated bandwidth

Table 3-1 Typical Cell Spacings by Market
Table 3-2 Population Densities
Table 3-3 Single Sector Voice Capacity by Technology: No Interference (1 of 1 reuse)
Table 3-4 Voice Capacity Estimates per Sector by Technology; 10 MHz
Table 3-5 Fundamental Bit Rates by 2.5 and 3G Technology
Table 3-6 Generic Estimates of 2.5G and 3G Data Capacity, 10 MHz
Table 3-7 Industry Estimates of 2.5G and 3G Data Capacity per sector, 10 MHz
Table 3-8 Reported Subscriber bit rates or 2.5G and 3G Networks
Table 3-9 Voice Capacity Estimates per Sector by Technology; 5 MHz
Table 3-10 Voice Capacity Estimates per Sector by Technology; 12.5 MHz
Table 3-11 Voice Capacity Estimates per Sector by Technology; 15 MHz
Table 3-12 In-Works 802.11 WLAN Standards
Table 3-13 IEEE 802.11 and HiperLan/2 WLAN Technical Features
Table 3-14 Comparison of CS and IP Network Technologies and Market Characteristics
Table 3-15 Estimated Cost Structures per Cell

Table 4-1 Top International Cellular Markets: Total Subscribers
Table 4-2 Wireless Handset Forecast
Table 4-3 Est. Total Handset Unit Sales; percent [per 1000] of previous year’s subscribers
Table 4-4 Wireless Handset Unit Forecast by Technology
Table 4-5 Wireless Handset Unit Forecast by Region
Table 4-6 Forecast 2G, 2.5G, 3G Wireless Handset Unit Sales; 2000 – 2006 {check GPRS 00, 01?? }
Table 4-7 Wireless Handset Market Share by Vendor; 1999 - 2002
Table 4-8 Wireless Handset ASP and Total Market Analysis; 2001-3
Table 4-9 Wireless Handset DSP TAM; 2000 – 2002
Table 4-10 US Cellular, PCS, and ESMR Subscribers and Cell Sites
Table 4-11Dallas-Fort Worth Cellular MSA
Table 4-12 Kansas City, MO-KS MSA
Table 4-13 Savannah, GA Cellular MSA
Table 4-14 Deutsche Telecom’s T-Mobile GSM Network (Germany)
Table 4-15 Telecom Italia Mobile (TIM) GSM Network (Italy)
Table 4-16 Vodafone’s United Kingdom GSM Network
Table 4-17 Estimated Upper limits on Number of Cell Sites
Table 4-18 Estimated Channel Capacity per Cell and Sector, 10 MHz
Table 4-19 Forecast Operator Infrastructure Capital Expense (CAPEX)
Table 4-20 Forecast Wireless Network Electronic Equipment and Service CAPEX
Table 4-21 WW Wireless Infrastructure Electronic Equipment Forecasts by Technology
Table 4-22 Regional Wireless Infrastructure Forecasts of Channels, RF Carriers, & Cells
Table 4-23 Forecast Wireless Network Electronic Equipment Capital Investments by Regions
Table 4-24 Wireless Semiconductor Forecast
Table 4-25 Classification of 3G Applications
Table 4-26 Wireless Internet Core Network Market Potential

Table 5-1 Major First Generation (1G) Cellular Standards–Analog Transmission
Table 5-2 Major 2G Cellular & PCS Standards–Digital Transmission w/Voice Coders
Table 5-3 3GPP Releases and Feature Overview
Table 5-4 GSM / GRS/ EDGE/ TDMA-136 parameters
Table 5-5 GSM International Spectrum Allocations
Table 5-6 GSM/EDGE/AMR Capacity Enhancing Mechanisms
Table 5-7 EGPRS Coding and Modulation Schemes 3
Table 5-8 UMTS Frequency Bands
Table 5-9 WCDMA Parameters
Table 5-10 TDD versus FDD Considerations
Table 5-11 TDD WCDMA and TD-SCDMA Air Interface Parameters ,
Table 5-12 CDMA2000 1x-EV-DO Forward Link Modulation Parameters
Table 5-13 DECT Common Air Interface (CI) Parameters
Table 5-14 GSM System Parameters
Table 5-15 TDMA System Parameters
Table 5-16 PDC System Parameters
Table 5-17 CDMA System Parameters

Table 6-1 Potential benefits of Improved Signal Processing and Coding Algorithms
Table 6-2 Reported Turbo Code Performance
Table 6-3 Multiple-Access Detector (MUD) advantages and disadvantages
Table 6-4 Potential 3G Smart Antenna Sector and RF Carrier Market
Table 6-5 Comparison of Mobile Phones and BS Wireless Transceiver Requirements
Table 6-6 2G and 3G Modulation Parameters
Table 6-7 SDR: ASIC, Programmable DSP, & FPGA tradeoffs
Table 6-8 Requirements Summary for SDR Technology for 2G and 3G

TTable 7-1 CALA Wireless Subscribers
Table 7-2 Canada Wireless Operators, Subscribers, and 3G Activities
Table 7-3Vodafone Summary of Wireless Subscribers (31 March 2002)
Table 7-4 Vodafone Summary of 3G Licenses, GPRS Launches, and Network data
Table 7-5 DT T-Mobile Operating Indicators
Table 7-6 Orange France and UK Indicators (12/2001)
Table 7-7 Orange International Operations
Table 7-8 Orange UMTS License Awards
Table 7-9 TIM Indicators
Table 7-10 Telefonica Wireless Indicators
Table 7-11 MMO2 International Operations and Indicators
Table 7-12 China Mobile (CML) Acquisition Subscriber Data
Table 7-13 China Mobile (CML) Operating Indicators (yearend 2001)
Table 7-14 China Unicom (CMU) Operating Indicators (yearend 2001)
Table 7-15 DoCoMo Operating Indicators (yearend 2001)
Table 7-16 SK Telecom Operating Indicators (yearend 2001)
Table 7-17 Key TI Acquisitions
Table 7-18 Overview of Spectrian’s MCPA products


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