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WIRELESS INFRASTRUCTURE TECHNOLOGY & MARKETS

THE CHALLANGE OF 3G

Report No. 2203

Table Of Contents

1. Executive Summary

  • 1.1 Overview
  • 1.2 Market Trends
  • 1.3 Study Methodology & Scope

2. Introduction & Background

  • 2.1 The Cellular Concept
  • 2.2 Cellular and PCS Network Architectures and Elements
  • 2.3 Cellular Capacity
  • 2.4 Cellular Channels and Multiple Access
  • 2.5 RF Propagation

3. Wireless Driving Forces, Trends, and Issues

  • 3.1 Trends and Issues
    • 3.1.1 Asia becomes leading Wireless Market in 2002 and is a 3G leader
    • 3.1.2 Western Europe’s wireless saturation and emerging 3G services
    • 3.1.3 United States’ emerging 3G data services
    • 3.1.4 Emerging replacement market and net adds opportunities
    • 3.1.5 Difficult Economic Environment: high debt in Telecom
    • 3.1.6 Service Plans; Prepaid, Contract, Roaming
    • 3.1.7 Data Services’ revenue percentage
    • 3.1.8 Intellectual Property (IP) moving down food chain
    • 3.1.9 Network Equipment Vendors provide services
  • 3.2 Driving Forces Discussions
    • 3.2.1 International Competition
    • 3.2.2 Competition in US
    • 3.2.3 2G Migrations (1G to 2G): Essentially Complete
    • 3.2.4 International Telecommunication Union (ITU) Global 3G Activities
    • 3.2.5 Internet Data Revolution
    • 3.2.6 DSP and configurable Technologies
    • 3.2.7 Software Defined Radio (SDR) Technology
    • 3.2.8 CMOS Semiconductor Technology
    • 3.2.9 Multiuser Detection (MUD), Smart Antenna, and Error Coding DSP Algorithms
    • 3.2.10 World Radio Conference (WRC)
    • 3.2.11 World Trade Organization (WTO) Telecommunication Trade Agreement
    • 3.2.12 Open Standards
      • 3.2.12.1 Third-Generation Partnership Projects (3GPP and 3GPP2)
      • 3.2.12.2 Open Mobile Alliance (OMA)
      • 3.2.12.3 Open Base Station Architecture Initiative (OBSAI)
      • 3.2.12.4 Brew
  • 3.3 Wireless Infrastructure Capacity Estimates
    • 3.3.1 Voice Capacity: Erlang Capacity
    • 3.3.2 Data Capacity: Always-on Composite Bit rate
    • 3.3.3 Telenor Mobile GSM Capacity Experiences Interview
    • 3.3.4 Capacity Estimates by Technology
      • 3.3.4.1 Voice Capacity
      • 3.3.4.2 Data Capacity
      • 3.3.4.3 Capacity Summary
  • 3.4 Emerging 3G Services
    • 3.4.1 Messaging Services
    • 3.4.2 Location Services
    • 3.4.3 Infotainment Services
    • 3.4.4 M-Commerce
    • 3.4.5 Mobile Internet Services
    • 3.4.6 Enterprise Services
  • 3.5 Wireless LANS (WLANs): 3G friend or foe?
  • 3.6 Wireless IP (Internet Protocol) Networks
    • 3.6.1 Circuit Switched (CS) Network
    • 3.6.2 Packet-Switched (PS) Networks
    • 3.6.3 Wireless IP
  • 3.7 Profile: US West’s Open Network Wireless Technology


4. Market Forecasts

  • 4.1 Wireless Subscriber Forecasts
    • 4.1.1 World Subscriber History and Forecasts
    • 4.1.2 Drivers and Assumptions
    • 4.1.3 Western Europe Trends and Subscriber Forecasts
    • 4.1.4 China Trends and Subscriber Forecasts
    • 4.1.5 United States (US) Trends and Subscriber Forecasts
    • 4.1.6 Japan Trends and Subscriber Forecasts
    • 4.1.7 Korea Trends and Subscriber Forecasts
  • 4.2 Mobile Terminal & Handset Market Forecasts
    • 4.2.1 Market Forecasts
    • 4.2.2 Market Discussions
  • 4.3 Wireless Infrastructure Market Forecasts
    • 4.3.1 Deployed Infrastructure Examples
    • 4.3.2 Infrastructure Forecasts
    • 4.3.3 Capacity Forecasts
    • 4.3.4 Infrastructure Electronic Equipment Forecasts
    • 4.3.5 Wireless Semiconductor Forecasts
    • 4.3.6 Global 3rd Generation (3G) Infrastructure Opportunities
    • 4.3.7 Wireless Multimedia Opportunities & Forecasts

5. 3G Wireless Technology Evolution & Standards

  • 5.1 ITU IMT-2000 Requirements and Goals
  • 5.2 Summary of 1G and 2G Wireless Standards
  • 5.3 Global 3rd Generation (3G) Technologies & Standards
    • 5.3.1 3rd Generation Project Partnership (3GPP) Standards
      • 5.3.1.1 GERAN (GSM/EDGE Radio Access Network) / EGPRS (IMT-SC)
      • 5.3.1.2 GPRS/EGPRS
      • 5.3.1.3 UTRA/Wideband CDMA (WCDMA) (FDD) (ITU IMT-DS)
      • 5.3.1.4 UTRA TDD and TD-SCDMA (IMT-TC)
    • 5.3.2 3rd Generation Project Partnership 2 (3GPP2) Standards
      • 5.3.2.1 CDMA2000 1x, 1x-EV-DO & 1xEV-DV (ITU IMT-MC)
      • 5.3.2.2 CDMA IS-95B
      • 5.3.2.3 CDMA2000 1x
      • 5.3.2.4 CDMA2000 1x-EV-DO
      • 5.3.2.5 CDMA2000 1xEV-DV
    • 5.3.3 Digital Enhanced Cordless Telecommunication (DECT)(ITU IMT-FT)
    • 5.3.4 Harmonized IP Multimedia Subsystem (IMS) Core Network (“All IP”)
  • 5.4 2nd Generation (2G) Cellular/PCS Standards
    • 5.4.1 Global System for Mobile Communication (GSM)
    • 5.4.2 TDMA or Digital AMPS (DAMPS)
    • 5.4.3 Pacific Digital System (PDC)
    • 5.4.4 cdmaOne/IS-95

6. Technologies for 3G

  • 6.1 Modulation and Coding Technology Evolution for 3G
    • 6.1.1 Historical Summary of Communication Algorithms
    • 6.1.2 Coding: Convolutional, Trellis, TCM, & Concatenated Coders
    • 6.1.3 Viterbi Algorithm: Efficient Maximum Likelihood Decoding
    • 6.1.4 Turbo Coding
    • 6.1.5 Multiple-Access Interference (MAI) Mitigation/Multiuser Detection (MUD)
  • 6.2 Smart Antennas
  • 6.3 Software Defined Radios (SDR) for 3G
    • 6.3.1 Wireless Transceiver Architectures
    • 6.3.2 RF and Data Acquisition
    • 6.3.3 IF and Baseband DSP Architectures
    • 6.3.4 Vision of SDR Evolution
    • 6.3.5 SDR Standards
  • 6.4 DSP Semiconductor Technologies for 3G
  • 6.5 Bluetooth - Short-range wireless technology
  • 6.6 WAP - Wireless Application Protocol (WAP)

7. Company Profiles

  • 7.1 Wireless Carriers/Operators
    • 7.1.1 Americas
      • 7.1.1.1 Verizon Wireless (NYSE: VZ)
      • 7.1.1.2 Cingular Wireless
      • 7.1.1.3 AT&T Wireless (NYSE: AWE)
      • 7.1.1.4 Sprint PCS (NYSE: PCS and parent NYSE: FON)
      • 7.1.1.5 VoiceStream / DT-T-Mobile (NYSE: DT ADR)
      • 7.1.1.6 Nextel Communication, INC (NASDAQ: NXTL)
      • 7.1.1.7 Alltel Corporation (NYSE: AT)
      • 7.1.1.8 Leap Wireless International, Inc. (Nasdaq: LWIN)
      • 7.1.1.9 US West/Qwest (NASDAQ: Q)
      • 7.1.1.10 CALA (Caribbean and Latin America)
      • 7.1.1.11 American Moviles (NASDAQ: MDX)
      • 7.1.1.12 Canada
    • 7.1.2 Europe
      • 7.1.2.1 Vodafone Group (NYSE ADR: VODA); UK
        7.1.2.2 Deutsche Telekom (NYSE ADR: DT), Germany
        7.1.2.3 France Telecom (NYSE ADR: FTE); Orange, UK
        7.1.2.4 Telecom Italia Mobile (TIM)/Telecom Italia(NYSE ADR: TI); Italy
        7.1.2.5 Telefonica (NYSE: TEF), Telefonica Moviles (NYSE: TEM); Spain
        7.1.2.6 MMO2
    • 7.1.3 Asia
      • 7.1.3.1 China Mobile and China Unicom
        7.1.3.2 China Mobile (NYSE: CML)
        7.1.3.3 China Unicom (NYSE: CMU)
        7.1.3.4 NTT DoCoMo (NYSE ADR: DCM and NTT)
        7.1.3.5 SK Telecom (NYSE: SKM), Korea
        7.1.3.6 Hutchison Whampoa Limited; Hutchison Telecommunications(Hong Kong)
  • 7.2 Network Infrastructure System/Equipment Providers
    • 7.2.1 Alcatel (NYSE ADR: ALA)
    • 7.2.2 Ericsson (ADR NYSE: ERICY)
    • 7.2.3 Fujitsu Limited (OTC: FJTSF)
    • 7.2.4 Huawei Technologies (China)
    • 7.2.5 Lucent Technologies (NYSE: LU)
    • 7.2.6 Motorola (NYSE: MOT)
    • 7.2.7 NEC (NASDAQ: NIPNY) (FTSE: 6701q.l) (TYSE: 6701)
    • 7.2.8 Nokia (ADR NYSE: NOKA)
    • 7.2.9 Nortel Networks (NYSE: NT)
    • 7.2.10 Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. (OTC: SSNNF)
    • 7.2.11 Siemens AG (NYSE: SI)
  • 7.3 Semiconductor Suppliers
    • 7.3.1 Agere (NYSE: AGR’A)
    • 7.3.2 Altera Corporation (NASNAQ: ALTR)
    • 7.3.3 Analog Devices (NYSE: ADI)
    • 7.3.4 Intel (NYSE: INTEL)
    • 7.3.5 Motorola Microelectronics (NYSE: MOT)
    • 7.3.6 Philips (NYSE: PHG)
    • 7.3.7 Qualcomm, Inc. (NYSE: QCOM)
    • 7.3.8 Silicon Laboratories Inc (NASDAQ: SLAB)
    • 7.3.9 STMicroelectronics (NYSE: STM)
    • 7.3.10 Texas Instruments (NYSE: TXN)
    • 7.3.11 Xilinx, Inc (NASDAQ: XLNX)
  • 7.4 Wireless Intellectual Property (IP) Suppliers
    • 7.4.1 Power Amplifier Suppliers
      • 7.4.1.1 Andrew / Celiant (NASDAQ: ANDW)
      • 7.4.1.2 Powerwave Technologies, Inc (NASDAQ: PWAV)
      • 7.4.1.3 Spectrian Corporation (NASDAQ: SPCT), REMEC (NASDAQ: REMC)
    • 7.4.2 Superconductor Technology Suppliers
      • 7.4.2.1 Conductus, Inc (NASDAQ: CDTS)
      • 7.4.2.2 ISCO International, Inc (AMEX: ISO)
      • 7.4.2.3 Hypres, Inc
      • 7.4.2.4 Superconductor Technologies, Inc (NASDAQ: SCON)
    • 7.4.3 Smart Antennas
      • 7.4.3.1 ArrayComm, Inc
      • 7.4.3.2 Metawave, Inc (NASDAQ: MTWV)
    • 7.4.4 Other Intellectual Property Suppliers
      • 7.4.4.1 InterDigital Communications Corporation (NASDAQ: IDCC)
      • 7.4.4.2 Intrinsity, Inc
      • 7.4.4.3 Mercury Computer Systems (NASDAQ: MRCY)
      • 7.4.4.4 Morpho Technologies
      • 7.4.4.5 Morphics Technology, Inc.
      • 7.4.4.6 QuickSilver Technology, Inc.
      • 7.4.4.7 RadioScape Ltd.
      • 7.4.4.8 Repeater Technologies, Inc. (Nasdaq:RPTR)
      • 7.4.4.9 Thin Multimedia

Figures

  • Fig. 1 Typical WLAN Configuration
  • Fig. 2 2002 WLAN Revenue by Equipment Category
  • Fig. 3 WLAN Equipment Sales Forecast 2002-2006
  • Fig. 4 Market Forecast From 2003-2006
  • Fig. 5 Total Chip Set Shipments by Technology in 2002
  • Fig. 6 802.11 Shipment Forecast Summary 2001-2005
  • Fig. 7 IEEE 802.1x Communications Link
  • Fig. 8 Comparison of Process Technologies For WLAN
  • Fig. 9 802.11 5 GHz Frequency Band Assignments Worldwide
  • Fig. 10 1500 Byte UDP Throughput Comparison of 802.11a vs. 802.1b
  • Fig. 11 Range Throughput Comparison of 802.11a vs. 802.11g
  • Fig. 12 Indoor Propagation Delays in The Home
  • Fig. 13 Range vs. Throughput Comparisons of 802.11abg Chip Sets
  • Fig. 14 802.11 Standards Structure For Extensions
  • Fig. 15 Public WLAN Network Service Revenue by Venue
  • Fig. 16 Public Hotspot Site and Subscriber Growth 2002 -2006
  • Fig. 17 Global Public Hotspot Site Growth 2001-2002 by Company
  • Fig. 18 Telia GPRS WAN vs. 802.11b Usage Cost
  • Fig. 19 Global GPRS WAN vs. Wi-Fi Usage Cost
  • Fig. 20 2002 Enterprise vs. Consumer Sales Percentage
  • Fig. 21 2002 H/W Shipment Categories by Percentage
  • Fig. 22 Enterprise vs. Consumer Equipment Growth 2001-2002
  • Fig. 23 WLAN H/W Revenue by WLAN Technology 2001-2002
  • Fig. 24 Shipment Growth 802.11b vs. 802.11a From 2001-2002
  • Fig. 25 WLAN Shipment Growth by Equipment Type 2001-2002
  • Fig. 26 WLAN Total Sales Growth by Equipment Type 2001-2002
  • Fig. 27 Consumer WLAN Sales Growth 2001-2002
  • Fig. 28 NIC/BBRG/AP Consumer Shipment Growth 2001-2002
  • Fig. 29 NIC/BBRG Consumer Sales Growth 2001-2002
  • Fig. 30 2002 Consumer NIC Vendor Sales Share
  • Fig. 31 Consumer BBRG/AP Vendor Sales Share 2002
  • Fig. 32 Overall Market Vendor Share Sales in 2002
  • Fig. 33 Overall Market Vendor Share Sales in 2001
  • Fig. 34 Comparisons of Enterprise vs. Consumer Sales 2001-2002
  • Fig. 35 Enterprise Sales Growth From 2001 -2002
  • Fig. 36 NIC/AP Sale Summaries For 2001-2002
  • Fig. 37 NIC/AP Enterprise Shipments Summary 2001-2002
  • Fig. 38 802.11b NIC/AP Enterprise Shipment Growth 2001-2002
  • Fig. 39 802.11a NIC/AP Enterprise Sales Growth 2001-2002
  • Fig. 40 2002 Enterprise Ap/Bridge by Vendor Sales in 2002
  • Fig. 41 Enterprise AP/Bridge Vendor Share Sales For 2001
  • Fig. 42 NIC Vendor Sales Share 2H/02
  • Fig. 43 802.11a AP Vendor Sales Share 2H/02
  • Fig. 44 Overall 802.11a Vendor Sales Share 2H/02
  • Fig. 45 Overall 802.11a Vendor Shipment Share 2H/02
  • Fig. 46 2002 Branded NIC Vendor Sales Share
  • Fig. 47 2001 All NIC Vendor Sales Share
  • Fig. 48 2002 Consumer NIC Vendor Sales Share
  • Fig. 49 2002 Vendor Share of Shipments
  • Fig. 50 Vendor Shares of PC OEM NIC Sales in 2002
  • Fig. 51 Vendor Shares of PC OEM NIC Shipments in 2002
  • Fig. 52 Total Vendor Market Share 2002 Sales
  • Fig. 53 Total 2002 Vendor Share 2002 Shipments
  • Fig. 54 2002 Chip Vendor Share in Sales
  • Fig. 55 2002 Chip Vendor Share in Shipments
  • Fig. 56 Chip Sales by 802.11 Technology Type
  • Fig. 57 WLAN 2002 Global Market (Consumption)
  • Fig. 58 Total Sales by Equipment Category 2002-2006
  • Fig. 59 Shipment Forecast 802.11 NIC/AP and Embedded
  • Fig. 60 Breakout Forecast of Equipment Sales 2002-2006
  • Fig. 61 Enterprise/Consumer Infrastructure Percent 2002-2006
  • Fig. 62 Enterprise/Consumer Clients Percent 2002-2006
  • Fig. 63 Shipment Forecast Summary 2001-2005
  • Fig. 64 LAN/WLAN Market Share For 2001 Volume
  • Fig. 65 Comparisons of Wireless Data Transmission Speeds
  • Fig. 66 Growth of Smartphones & Handheld Computing
  • Fig. 67 WLAN Smartphones, WLAN Pdas & WLAN Phone Growth 2001-2006
  • Fig. 68 Growth of 2.5G Cellular Data Phones
  • Fig. 69 Corporate Voice WLAN Network Supporting Voice
  • Fig. 70 Comparison of LAN Infrastructures
  • Fig. 71 The Evolution of WLAN Cards and Form Factors
  • Fig. 72 Client NIC Card Percentages For 2002
  • Fig. 73 SDIO Module Forecast of Shipments From 2003 To 2007
  • Fig. 74 Global Desktop, Notebook, & PDA Unit Growth-2002-2006
  • Fig. 75 WLAN Desktop, Notebook & Thin Client Growth 2002-2006
  • Fig. 76 Penetration of Wireless Tablet PCs 2002-2006
  • Fig. 77 Global DSL Subscriber Penetration by Major Region
  • Fig. 78 Worldwide DSL Subscriber Growth by Major Region
  • Fig. 79 Global DSL and Cable Modem Subscriber 2001-2006
  • Fig. 80 Global Wireless BB Router-Gateway Shipments 2001-2006
  • Fig. 81 WW Cable Telephony Subscriber Growth 2001-2006
  • Fig. 82 WW Wireless Set-Top Box Growth 2001-2006
  • Fig. 83 Wireless Set-Top Box Growth From 2003 To 2006
  • Fig. 84 Global WLAN Media Client Equipment Growth 2001-2006
  • Fig. 85 WLAN Silicon Suppliers-Current and Pending
  • Fig. 86 Typical 802.11b WLAN NIC Components

Tables

  • Table 1 WLAN Protocol Standard Distance Versus Speed Comparison
  • Table 2 The Four Stages of
    WLAN Security
  • Table 3 Overview of 802.11b/a/g Technology
  • Table 4 Permutations of 802.11x and Approval Status
  • Table 5 Mandatory Transmission Speeds of Different 802.11 Standards
  • Table 6 802.11a Versus 802.11b Throughput Comparison
  • Table 7 Media Transmission vs. 802.11 WLAN Throughput
  • Table 8 Allocation of 5ghz Bandwidth by Major Region
  • Table 9 Bluetooth and Other WLAN Alternatives
  • Table 10 Comparisons of 2.5G/3G vs. Wi-Fi Service Cost
  • Table 11 802.11 Sales Detail From 1H/02- 2H/02
  • Table 12 Consumer/Enterprise Sales-Shipment Detail 1H/02-2H/02
  • Table 13 Equipment Sales & Shipments Summary 2001 -2006
  • Table 14 Enterprise vs. Consumer Sales From 2002-2006
  • Table 15 Individual vs. Business Users of WLAN 2002-2006
  • Table 16 Equipment Sales and Shipments Detail 2001 –2006
  • Table 17 BBRG Percent of Broadband Net Users-2001-2006
  • Table 18 Business Client/AP Expansion Ratios From 2001-2006
  • Table 19 WLAN Total Chip Set Forecast Through 2006
  • Table 20 WLAN Chip Set Forecast by Type 2002-2006
  • Table 21 Embedded WLAN IP Forecast: 2002-2006
  • Table 22 Mobile WLAN NIC Card Values 2002-2006
  • Table 23 WLAN Consumer Equipment Shipment Forecast From 2002-2006
  • Table 24 WLAN Equipment Penetration Model From 2002-2006
  • Table 25 Major Notebook PCs With Integrated 802.11b WLAN Card
  • Table 26 Changes of Client NIC Cards by Type 4Q/01-2Q/02
  • Table 27 SOHO 802.11b Router Gateway Comparison
  • Table 28 Taiwanese NIC & Basestation Shipment Forecast
  • Table 29 Big 6 Taiwan WLAN Suppliers
  • Table 30 Component offerings of 802.11 Chip Suppliers
 
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